{"id":2927,"date":"2021-11-06T16:49:01","date_gmt":"2021-11-06T08:49:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/science.mosisson.com\/?p=2927"},"modified":"2021-11-06T16:49:01","modified_gmt":"2021-11-06T08:49:01","slug":"%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e4%ba%8b%e5%ae%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/science.mosisson.com\/?p=2927","title":{"rendered":"\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e8b\u5b9e"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>1982<\/strong>\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5a01\u5ec9\u2022 \u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af(<strong>William Nordhaus <\/strong><strong>)<\/strong>\u51fa \u7248\u4e86\u300a\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u4ee5\u600e\u6837\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u74dc \u5206\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u6e90\uff1f\u300b<strong>(<\/strong><strong>How Fast Should We Graze the Global Commons?), <\/strong>\u8be6\u7ec6\u5730\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71 \u54cd\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u529e\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c \u5c31\u5bfb\u627e\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u95ee\u9898\u7684 \u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u4f7f\u5f97\u5b83\u5177\u6709\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\uff1a\u65f6 \u95f4\u957f\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u591a\u3001\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5168\u7403<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6536\u76ca\u4e0e\u6210\u672c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d \u5747\u5300\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2006<\/strong>\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u59d4\u6258\u82f1 \u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9\u65af\u2022\u65af\u7279\u6069<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>(<\/strong><strong>Nicholas Stern <\/strong><strong>)<\/strong>\u5728\u300a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8 \u5316\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\u4e0a\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u62a5\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300a\u65af\u7279\u6069\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u5f88\u660e \u786e\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3a\u5feb\u901f\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u51cf\u5c11\u6e29\u5ba4 \u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6709\u529b\u7684\u8bba\u636e\u3002\u65af \u7279\u6069\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6700\u7ec8 \u6210\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9ad8\u8fbe<strong>GDP (<\/strong>\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7 \u603b\u503c\uff0c\u6216\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165)\u7684<strong>20%, <\/strong>\u800c\u5982\u679c\u8fc5\u901f\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee \u9898\uff0c\u5219\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u8d39<strong>GDP<\/strong>\u7684<strong>1%<\/strong>\u5373 \u53ef\u3002<strong>2009<\/strong>\u5e74\uff0c\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u82e5 \u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u5e72\u9884\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5230<strong>2099<\/strong>\u5e74\uff0c\u6bcf \u5e74\u7531\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u5c06 \u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u503c\u7684<strong>2.5%<\/strong>\u3002\u4f4e\u6536\u5165 \u7684\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5982\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a \u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u906d\u53d7\u7684\u635f\u5931\u6700\u5927\u3002 \u73b0\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426 \u8d1f\u62c5\u5f97\u8d77\u51cf\u6392\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u80fd \u627f\u53d7\u4e0d\u51cf\u6392\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982 \u4f55\u6700\u597d\u5730\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6709\u8db3 \u591f\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u53d6\u5e72\u9884 \u884c\u52a8\uff1a\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u516c\u5171\u7269\u54c1\uff0c\u5e02 \u573a\u4f9b\u7ed9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0d\u8db3\uff1b\u6c61\u67d3\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab \u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5176\u793e\u4f1a \u6210\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4f53\u73b0\uff0c\u56e0 \u6b64\uff0c\u6c61\u67d3\u7684\u5236\u9020\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u627f\u62c5 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